The article concerns the problems of profitability of dairy farms, which according to classification of the Central Statistical Office, belong to the group of very small and small farms. Analysis of production and economic situation covers the years 2015-2020 and takes into account the changes in the regulations in terms of direct support for farms. Data from 94 farms, characterised by high specialisation in the production of milk, were used for the purpose. The study takes into account the volatility of milk prices and milk yield of cows this, in turn, allowed to achieve distribution of agricultural income in each year of the analysis. The results show that small dairy farms in the coming period can expect an increase in farm income, but their level in half of the farms will not exceed the income parity. The risk of negative agricultural income refers to a small number of farms and the occurrence of this phenomenon is unlikely.