The paper contains an attempt to predict changes in the agricultural production in Poland until 2020. The prognosis is based on the research results of the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – NRI, the opinions of experts from various research centres and the statistical data of the Central Statistical Office. The authors have identified the decisive factors, both of natural as well as organizational and economic character, having the influence on trends in the agricultural production. Finally the situation will be determined by the changes in the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU above all, so the prognosis should be regarded as one of many possible scenarios. Nevertheless, it provides a basis for further discussions.