RESEARCH PAPER
IMPACT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ON CEREAL YIELDS IN POLAND
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Poznan University of Economics and Business
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2023-08-16
Final review date: 2023-10-13
Acceptance date: 2024-04-18
Publication date: 2024-06-27
Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics 2024;379(2):1-18
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was to assess the impact of weather factors on the yield of selected cereals
in the context of ongoing climate change. The study used variables specifying factors such as temperature,
precipitation, as well as control variables, which were the share of medium and heavy
soils in a given province and the consumption of mineral fertilizers in kg of NPK/ha. The dependent
variables were yields of selected cereals. Data were collected from databases of the Polish Institute
of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW PIB), Poland Statistics
(GUS), and Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation State Research Institute (IUNG PIB).
The meteorological data came from 157 meteorological stations located in 14 provinces. Estimation
was carried out for the 2013–2020 period. The study used the panel regression method. For all
the models estimated, there was a significant effect of the number of days with precipitation on yields.
While regularly occurring, moderate rainfall is undoubtedly favorable, large amounts of rainfall can
adversely affect yields. Another statistically significant climatic factor is temperature during spring
and summer, with moderate temperatures being the most favorable for yields. Changes in temperature
affected yield changes in individual cereals with varying intensity, with the strongest effect recorded
for wheat. On the basis of the research carried out, a conclusion was drawn that Polish agriculture will need to adapt to the new conditions by undertaking a number of measures, including changing
the structure of crops, securing the irrigation of plants against possible droughts with efficient, modern
irrigation systems, increasing the genetic diversity of plants, and using modern agrotechnics.