RESEARCH PAPER
INFORMAL ECONOMY AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN BANGLADESH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
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Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University
Submission date: 2023-06-01
Final review date: 2023-07-03
Acceptance date: 2023-08-23
Publication date: 2023-09-27
Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics 2023;376(3):91-113
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ABSTRACT
The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between the informal economy and agricultural
productivity in Bangladesh over a 25-year period from 1993 to 2018. While the impact of
the black market on the economy is a well-studied topic, its implications for the agricultural sector
in this specific country context was less explored. By controlling structural transformation, trade,
and foreign direct investment (FDI) in agriculture, the authors employ autoregressive distributed lag
(ARDL) using Kripfganz and Schneider’s (2018) approximations, as well as fully modified ordinary
least square (FMOLS) and feasible generalized least square (FGLS) techniques. The results reveal
that informality initially hampers agricultural productivity in the short term due to reduced government
revenue, but in the long run, it acts as an active social protection system, fostering informal
employment and providing essential amenities. Although the study’s time span limits the investigation
to this specific period, it serves as a crucial attempt to assess the impact of informality on agriculture
in Bangladesh, highlighting the need for cautious consideration of both the benefits and drawbacks
of the informal sector in enhancing agricultural productivity. Policymakers in Bangladesh should act
cautiously, acknowledging the nuances of the informal sector’s influence on agriculture to leverage
its potential for sustainable economic growth.