Climate change, liberalisation of international trade of agricultural products and changes in the system of farms’ support result in increasing importance of the risk problem in European and Polish agriculture. It can be expected that a change in market and production conditions will result in significant increase of income volatility. The scale of change will depend on the financial support directed to agricultural sector and farmers’ reactions. The study reveals that in the case of Poland the most likely scenario results in rather moderate deterioration in farms’ financial results measured under risk. Extreme deterioration can be observed in liberal scenario under assumption of financial support elimination.